Russian economy in 2022: weak base effect can no longer support GDP growth
MOSCOW, December 28. / TASS /. Russia’s GDP growth by the end of 2022 will slow to around 2.5% and fall short of official forecasts, while annual inflation will still exceed the target and 5% mark, according to a report. consensus forecast compiled by TASS on the basis of a survey. analysts.
The main risk factors for the Russian economy remain the same: anti-coronavirus restrictions, tightening monetary policy, commodity prices, as well as low vaccination rates. In 2021, all numbers except inflation have improved after the weak 2020, but in 2022 the Russian economy will no longer grow from a “low base.”
According to experts interviewed by TASS, Russia’s GDP growth in 2022 will be around 2.5%. The official forecast from the Ministry of Economic Development for 2022 is 3%.
“GDP growth will be primarily negatively influenced by external shocks, as well as the company’s ability to adjust to tightening monetary policy both in Russia and globally. So far it is working , but who knows, “he added. Director of the National Rating Agency Sergey Grishunin said.
The head of the macroeconomic analysis department of Finam Olga Belenkaya also believes that the growth of the Russian economy will be largely determined by the international situation and will follow the global trend. “In 2022, in our baseline scenario, the global economy will continue to grow at a relatively high rate (but lower than in 2021), OPEC + oil production will continue to recover, which will support the sectors oriented towards exporting to the Russian economy, “she said.
The majority of experts, unlike the government and the Bank of Russia, believe that inflation in 2022 will fall from the current 8%, but still fall short of the target. According to the consensus, by the end of next year the figure will reach 5.1%.
“According to the Bank of Russia, the inflation rate is expected to drop to 4-4.5% by the end of 2022, but this scenario still seems unlikely,” said the director of the Center for Strategic Research Vladislav Onishchenko. Achieving the target seems more realistic in 2023 at the earliest, he said, provided there are no further shocks in the global economy.
The expected stabilization of commodity prices, the restoration of supply chains, the tightening of monetary and fiscal policies in Russia and around the world, as well as the opening of borders to foreign tourism, could help lower inflation. in 2022, according to the chief analyst of Sovcombank Mikhail Vasilyev.
The year 2022 will be as calm for the ruble exchange rate as 2021 – according to experts, the Russian currency will remain stable.
“Compared to previous years, the Russian currency in 2021 showed relatively low volatility, benefiting from the current growth in commodity prices. The average ruble exchange rate for this year is expected to be around 74 rubles to the dollar. . Next year, the average exchange rate will most likely drop to 75-78 rubles per dollar, “Onishchenko said. In his view, the growth potential of many commodities is all but exhausted.
Experts at HSE University agree – the dynamics of the ruble in recent months have been heavily influenced by geopolitical factors associated with a new round of tensions with Ukraine and concerns over the introduction of Western financial sanctions. As geopolitical tensions ease, economic factors are expected to dominate, they suggest.
Almost all of the experts surveyed struggled to predict the real disposable income of the population for 2022. According to Finam, the growth in real incomes of the population will reach 1.5-2%, while Alfa Capital expects a growth of 4 to 5%.