Retail and restaurant sales hit a new all-time high in February as Americans shopped after the worst of the Omicron wave
Americans curbed their spending boom in February as the coronavirus situation quickly improved and inflation soared to even higher levels.
Spending at restaurants and retailers rose 0.3% last month to a record $658.1 billion, the Census Bureau said Wednesday morning. That landed just below the median forecast for a 0.4% jump by economists polled by Bloomberg. It also marked a marked slowdown from the 4.9% gain recorded in January.
Total January sales were revised to $656.1 billion from $649.8 billion.
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Core retail sales, which exclude spending on cars and auto parts, rose 0.2% in the month, below the 0.9% estimate. It also reflects an easing after a 4.4% jump in January.
The report shows that demand is starting to cool as buying habits have crashed into even higher inflation. Data released last week showed prices of goods and services ripping 7.9% more in the year to February, marking the fastest pace of inflation since January 1982. Month-on-month inflation also accelerated, signaling supply chain pressures and soaring energy costs are remained major headwinds for businesses. As the month saw daily coronavirus infections plummet and the country largely reopened, sales data suggests high prices have curtailed the pandemic-era spending boom.
Sales rose the most at gasoline stations, as these businesses jumped 5.3% month-over-month in February. The increase was fueled at least in part by the jump in gasoline prices. Inflation data released last week showed gasoline prices jumped 6.6% in February alone. Since retail sales are reported in nominal dollars, the higher prices translated into higher expenses and dampened the overall increase in sales.
Restaurants and bars followed with a 2.5% gain in sales, according to the report. This follows a 1% contraction seen in January and suggests that the rapid decline in virus cases in the United States has triggered a comeback in the restaurant sector.
Conversely, non-store retailers saw sales fall 3.7% through February, more than any other category included in the report. The sector, which includes e-commerce platforms like Amazon, saw sales soar nearly 21% in January alone as the peak of the Omicron wave kept Americans stuck indoors and more likely to buy goods online.
Sales also fell at grocery stores, furniture stores, electronics companies and health and personal care stores.
The report suggests that spending could soon change course after weathering much of the pandemic. The passing of about $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus boosted spending early in the crisis as Americans rolled out direct payments and increased unemployment benefits. Widespread aid has allowed spending to begin a historically rapid recovery and exceed its pre-pandemic trend. By comparison, it took about four years for retail sales to fully rebound during the Great Recession.
Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity, and the latest sales report signals that there is still plenty of fuel to keep the recovery alive. Yet this overwhelming demand also risks keeping inflation high. Supply-side tensions continue to rock the US economy and prevent businesses from meeting the shopping spree of shoppers. With demand still strong, it increasingly looks like the inflation problem will have to be solved on the supply side.