Safe havens benefit in times of uncertainty, such as today, with geopolitical tensions, US sanctions on Russian oil, soaring prices everywhere, central banks turning hawkish and stripping vital support from the economy, while that some circles are pushing for a world war. As a result, gold surged above $2,000 at the start of the month as EUR/CHF trended lower.

Although, in the second week of this month, the sentiment improved somewhat, after attempts at negotiations. Today we heard from the Kremlin confirming talks between Russia and Ukraine, which is another positive for market sentiment, although USD/CHF has turned bearish over the past few hours, but we follow the price movement and will try to open a currency buy signal. down to the 100 SMA (green) on the daily chart, at 0.93.

USD/CHF Daily Chart – Prepare to Buy at the 100 SMA

The 100 SMA should once again serve as support for this pair

Another reason to be bearish on the CHF and bullish on USD/CHF is the intervention of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) which sold for 21.1 billion Swiss francs. The intervention is declared “necessary to contribute to appropriate monetary conditions”.

Eurozone construction output in January

• Construction production in January MoM +3.9% vs. -4.0% previously
• December MoM production was -4.0%; revised to -1.5%
• Year-on-year construction production for January +4.1%
• Previous YoY production was -3.9%; revised to +0.2%

It’s a solid rebound, accompanied by a strong upward revision from the December figures. Note that building construction increased by 4.2% and civil engineering by 1.4% in January. Either way, this is a very lagging data point, so it doesn’t mean much.

USD/CHF