COT Currency Speculators Increase Euro Bets
Here are the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data charts and statistics released by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday, January 11, 2022 and provides a quick snapshot of where large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) are standing in the futures markets. All currency positions are directly related to the where, for example, a bet for the is a bet that the euro will rise against the dollar. On the other hand, a bet against the euro will be that the euro falls against the dollar.
Highlighting COT currency data bounces into bullish territory for the Euro in currency futures. Euro speculators increased their bets for a fourth consecutive week and took the speculators’ overall position to its first bullish position in the last nine weeks (current net position is now +6,005 contracts).
Euro bets had been spent from March 2020 to September 2021 in bullish territory, with the price of the Euro reaching as high as 1.2350 before weakening. Speculator bets fell into bearish territory in October as the euro was in the midst of a downtrend that bottomed at around 1.12 on November 24.
Since then, the Euro has climbed above 1.14 and speculators’ positions have returned to bullish territory. Could a change in the uptrend follow?
Joining the euro (7,559 contracts) with positive changes this week were the (1,869 contracts), (10,005 contracts), (241 contracts), (3,649 contracts), (2,288 contracts), (227 contracts ) and the (5,039 contracts).
Currencies with falling bets were the US Dollar Index (-1,186 contracts), (-25,263 contracts), (-2,120 contracts) and the (-9,736 contracts).
US dollar index futures
The big US dollar index speculator this week ended up with a net position of 37,892 contracts in data released through Tuesday. This is a weekly decrease of -1,186 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of 39,078 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the range of traders’ positioning over the past three years, measured from 0-100) shows that speculators are currently bullish-extreme with a score of 91.1%. Ads are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2%, and Small Traders (not shown in the chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9%.
Euro futures
The big currency speculator in attendance this week resulted in a net position of 6,005 contracts in the data released through Tuesday. This is a weekly gain of 7,559 contracts from the previous week, which totaled -1,554 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the range of traders’ positioning over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows that speculators are currently bearish with a score of 36.8%. Ads are bullish with a score of 66.3%, and small traders (not shown in the chart) are bearish-extreme with a score of 19.8%.
British Pound Futures
The big pound speculator this week resulted in a net position of -29,166 contracts in the data released through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,005 contracts from the previous week, which totaled -39,171 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the range of traders’ positioning over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows that speculators are currently bullish with a score of 53.0%. Ads are bullish with a score of 52.2%, and small traders (not shown in the chart) are bearish with a score of 37.3%.
Japanese yen futures
The big Japanese yen speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -87,525 contracts in data reported through Tuesday. This is a weekly decline of -25,263 contracts from the previous week, which totaled -62,262 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the range of traders’ positioning over the past three years, measured from 0-100) shows that speculators are currently bearish-extreme with a score of 12.7%. Ads are bullish-extreme with a score of 90.0%, and small traders (not shown in the chart) are bearish-extreme with a score of 4.6%.
Swiss franc futures
The big Swiss franc speculator present this week resulted in a net position of -7,660 contracts in the data released through Tuesday. This is a weekly increase of 1,869 contracts from the previous week, which totaled -9,529 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the range of traders’ positioning over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows that speculators are currently bullish with a score of 56.6%. Ads are bearish with a score of 48.4%, and small traders (not shown in the chart) are bearish with a score of 40.0%.
Canadian dollar futures
The big Canadian dollar speculator standing up this week resulted in a net position of -7,376 contracts in data reported through Tuesday. This is a weekly gain of 3,649 contracts from the previous week, which totaled -11,025 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the range of traders’ positioning over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows that speculators are currently bearish with a score of 44.4%. Ads are bullish with a score of 57.6%, and small traders (not shown in the chart) are bearish with a score of 40.5%.
Australian dollar futures
The big Aussie dollar speculator this week resulted in a net position of -91,486 contracts in data reported through Tuesday. This is a weekly decline of -2,120 contracts from the previous week, which totaled -89,366 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the range of traders’ positioning over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows that speculators are currently bearish-extreme with a score of 0.0%. Ads are bullish-extreme with a score of 96.2%, and small traders (not shown in the chart) are bearish with a score of 22.9%.
New Zealand dollar futures
The big New Zealand dollar speculator this week resulted in a net position of -8,604 contracts in the data released through Tuesday. This is a weekly increase of 241 contracts from the previous week, which totaled -8,845 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the range of traders’ positioning over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows that speculators are currently bullish with a score of 56.8%. Ads are bearish with a score of 46.3%, and small traders (not shown in the chart) are bearish with a score of 32.4%.
Bitcoin Futures
The Bitcoin speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -377 contracts in data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 227 contracts from the previous week, which totaled -604 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the range of traders’ positioning over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows that speculators are currently bullish-extreme with a score of 94.9%. Ads are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2%, and Small Traders (not shown in the chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6%.